Michel Baudin's Blog
Ideas from manufacturing operations
  • Home
  • Home
  • About the author
  • Ask a question
  • Consulting
  • Courses
  • Leanix™ games
  • Sponsors
  • Meetup group
satellite-image-National-Oceanic-and-Atmospheric-Administration-August-28-2005.jpeg

Dec 25 2021

Always the Hurricanes Blowing

Atlantic hurricanes hurt people and destroy property around the Gulf of Mexico every year. Whether climate change is increasing their frequency is a serious question. Don Wheeler just had a column on this subject in the latest Quality Digest. It’s about Torturing the Data. He argues that we should be careful about not force-fitting models to arrive at pre-ordained conclusions.

His way of not torturing the history of hurricanes in the Atlantic is plotting yearly counts on, what else,  an XmR chart. It’s just as he would for hole diameters in metal plates coming off a production line in 1945. Hurricanes and holes in metal plates, however, have different backstories.

Continue reading…

Share this:

  • Click to print (Opens in new window) Print
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window) Reddit
  • Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X
  • Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window) Email

Like this:

Like Loading...

By Michel Baudin • Press clippings • 2 • Tags: Backstory, data science, Hurricane, NOAA, Seasonality, Trend, XmR

Oct 27 2021

Culture Change | MIT Sloan Management Review | Rose Hollister et al.

How the authors see it: “We define culture as a shared set of values (what we care about), beliefs (what we believe to be true), and norms of behavior (how we do things). […] We developed a set of culture transformation principles that maximize the likelihood of success:

  • Recognize that responsibility for culture can’t be delegated.
  • Start with the “why.”
  • Define the target cultural values and behaviors.
  • Engage and get input.
  • Build a bridge to the future desired culture.
  • Build a culture road map.
  • Reinforce the desired culture in all organizational systems.
  • Rapidly reward the emerging culture. “

Source: Hollister, R., Tecosky, K., Watkins, M, & Wolpert, C. (2021) Why Every Executive Should Be Focusing on Culture Change Now, MIT Sloan Management Review, Reprint 63137

Michel Baudin‘s comments: I define culture more simply as “the way we do things around here.” You don’t change it by making it the goal of a change program. To do it, first, you change the work, and then employees’ perceptions follow.

Redesign shop floor layouts to facilitate flow, develop multiskilled operators, hire employees for whole careers and retain them through thick and thin, engage them in solving problems,…

Over time, employees realize it’s not idle talk about lofty goals but concrete changes to their daily experience, including teamwork. Then it becomes “the way we do things around here,” in other words, a new culture.

#corporateculture

Share this:

  • Click to print (Opens in new window) Print
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window) Reddit
  • Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X
  • Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window) Email

Like this:

Like Loading...

By Michel Baudin • Press clippings • 7 • Tags: Culture change

CoverTitle.png

Oct 22 2021

Introduction to Manufacturing: Textbook Authors Meet in Zürich

Torbjørn Netland and I met in person at ETH in Zurich on October 21-22 for the first time since 2019! In the meantime, we had met every week on Zoom, exchanged messages on Slack, and edited each other’s writings.

TorbjørnAndMichel
“This is what we want to say.”

Continue reading…

Share this:

  • Click to print (Opens in new window) Print
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window) Reddit
  • Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X
  • Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window) Email

Like this:

Like Loading...

By Michel Baudin • Announcements • 2 • Tags: industrial engineering, Operations Management, Textbook

Seasons-Leaves.png

Oct 8 2021

Sales Forecasts – Part 4. Generating Point Forecasts with Trends and Seasonality

This fourth post about sales forecasts addresses what you actually start with — that is, visualizing the time series of historical sales and generating point estimates for the future. Theyou analyze the residuals to determine the probability forecasts.

What prompted me to review this field is the realization based on news of the M5 forecasting competition that this field has been the object of intense developments in recent years. Some techniques from earlier decades are now accessible through open-source software that can crunch tens of thousands of data points on an ordinary office laptop.

Others are new developments. Thanks to Stefan de Kok, John Darlington, Nicolas Vandeput, and Bill Waddell for comments and questions on the previous posts, that made me dig deeper:

  • Part 1. Evaluation
  • Part 2. More About Evaluation
  • Part 3. Generating Probability Forecasts

Continue reading…

Share this:

  • Click to print (Opens in new window) Print
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window) Reddit
  • Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X
  • Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window) Email

Like this:

Like Loading...

By Michel Baudin • Tools • 0 • Tags: Exponential Smoothing, Holt-Winters, Point Forecast, Probability Forecast, Sales Forecasting, Time Series

Building-the-team-The-Doudna-Charpentier-collaboration-is-sealed-on-the-steps-of-Stanley2

Aug 29 2021

Distributed Teams Can Work After All

The 2012 paper in Science about the CRISPR/Cas9 system has been hailed as the greatest breakthrough in biology since Crick and Watson’s discovery of the DNA double helix in 1953. It has earned its two Principal Investigators (PI), Emmanuelle Charpentier and Jennifer Doudna, the 2020 Nobel prize in chemistry. Laypersons cannot really follow this paper but what we can better understand is how the research team worked. And it is remarkable.

Continue reading…

Share this:

  • Click to print (Opens in new window) Print
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window) Reddit
  • Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X
  • Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window) Email

Like this:

Like Loading...

By Michel Baudin • Management • 1 • Tags: Project management, Team

Looking glass 2

Aug 27 2021

Sales Forecasts – Part 3. Generating Probability Forecasts

My last two long posts were about evaluating sales forecasts. They begged the question of how you generate these forecasts. This is a partial answer, about what you can tell from a history of sales through both classical methods and recent developments, particularly probability forecasting.

 

Continue reading…

Share this:

  • Click to print (Opens in new window) Print
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window) Reddit
  • Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X
  • Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window) Email

Like this:

Like Loading...

By Michel Baudin • Data science • 0 • Tags: Demand Forecast, Probability Forecast, Sales forecast

«< 7 8 9 10 11 >»

Follow Blog via Email

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 579 other subscribers

Recent Posts

  • Using Regression to Improve Quality | Part III — Validating Models
  • Rebuilding Manufacturing in France | Radu Demetrescoux
  • Using Regression to Improve Quality | Part II – Fitting Models
  • Using Regression to Improve Quality | Part I – What for?
  • Rankings and Bump Charts

Categories

  • Announcements
  • Answers to reader questions
  • Asenta selection
  • Automation
  • Blog clippings
  • Blog reviews
  • Book reviews
  • Case studies
  • Data science
  • Deming
  • Events
  • History
  • Information Technology
  • Laws of nature
  • Management
  • Metrics
  • News
  • Organization structure
  • Personal communications
  • Policies
  • Polls
  • Press clippings
  • Quality
  • Technology
  • Tools
  • Training
  • Uncategorized
  • Van of Nerds
  • Web scrapings

Social links

  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Google+
  • LinkedIn

My tags

5S Automation Autonomation Cellular manufacturing Continuous improvement data science Deming ERP Ford Government Health care industrial engineering Industry 4.0 Information technology IT jidoka Kaizen Kanban Lean Lean assembly Lean Health Care Lean implementation Lean Logistics Lean management Lean manufacturing Logistics Management Manufacturing Manufacturing engineering Metrics Mistake-Proofing Poka-Yoke Quality Six Sigma SMED SPC Standard Work Strategy Supply Chain Management Takt time Toyota Toyota Production System TPS Training VSM

↑

© Michel Baudin's Blog 2025
Powered by WordPress • Themify WordPress Themes
%d