Feb 17 2017
Variability, Randomness, And Uncertainty in Operations
This elaborates on the topics of randomness versus uncertainty that I briefly touched on in a prior post. Always skittish about using dreaded words like “probability” or “randomness,” writers on manufacturing or service operations, even Deming, prefer to use “variability” or “variation” for the way both demand and performance change over time, but it doesn’t mean the same thing. For example, a hotel room that goes for $100/night in November through March and $200/night from April to October has a price that is variable but not random. The rates are published, and you know them ahead of time.
By contrast, to a passenger, the airfare from San Francisco to Chicago is not only variable but random. The airlines change tens of thousands of fares every day in ways you discover when you book a flight. Based on having flown this route four times in the past 12 months, however, you expect the fare to be in the range of $400 to $800, with $600 as the most likely. The information you have is not complete enough for you to know what the price will be but it does enable you to have a confidence interval for it.
Jan 5 2021
Deep Learning And Profound Knowledge
In the news, Deep Learning is the currently emblematic technology of Machine-Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). In Management, the System of Profound Knowledge (SoPK) is a framework by W. Edwards Deming that specifies what individuals should know to be effective leaders of business organizations.
Your knowledge is what you have learned. You would not call a deep lake profound but a deep thought is also profound and vice versa. When discussing abstractions, there is no daylight in meaning between deep and profound.
Consequently, we might expect Deep Learning to be the process by which you acquire Profound Knowledge but it is nothing of the kind. As technical terms, they are unrelated and neither one matches expectations based on common, everyday usage.
Continue reading…
Share this:
Like this:
By Michel Baudin • Management • • Tags: Case-Based Reasoning, CBR, Deep Learning, Deming, Explaination, Machine Learning, Neural Nets, Profound Knowledge, SoPK