Mar 25 2024
A Review of Bernoulli’s Fallacy
Aubrey Clayton’s book, Bernoulli’s Fallacy, covers the same ground as Jaynes’s Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, for a broader audience. It is also an easier read, at 347 pages versus 727. In addition, the author also discusses the socio-political context of mathematical statistics in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. According to his account, mistakes ranged from justice and medicine to social sciences. It ends with recommendations to avoid repeating them.
This book is definitely a shot from the Bayesian side in the war between Bayesians and frequentists. It is tearing apart the world of statisticians but most data scientists have no wish to enlist on either side. They should nonetheless read it, for challenging ideas and historical background.
Apr 24 2024
When Not to Connect the Dots
When plotting a sequence of points, should we connect the dots into a line? We usually do, but it shouldn’t be a foregone conclusion. Every chart element should have a clear and precise meaning: if we can’t explain what it means or it is ambiguous, it confuses readers and we should omit it.
The bulk of the SPC literature shows Control Charts as broken-line graphs. 100 years ago, Walter Shewhart, the inventor of these charts, plotted separate points instead. He did not explain why, so it’s on us to try and figure out what may have been his reasons.
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By Michel Baudin • Data science 1