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Jun 15 2024

True And False Alarms in Quality Control

The SPC literature does not consider what happens when an organization successfully uses its tools. It stabilizes unstable processes so that disruption from assignable causes becomes increasingly rare. While this happens, the false alarms from the common causes remain at the same frequency, and the ratio of true to false alarms drops to a level that destroys the credibility of the alarms.

This is a signal that further quality improvement can only be pursued with other tools, typically the conversion to one-piece flow to accelerate the detection of problems and, once human error becomes the dominant cause of defects, error-proofing. This article digs into the details of how this happens with control charts. 

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By Michel Baudin • Quality • 4 • Tags: Control Chart, False Alarm, Quality, SPC, True Alarm

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Apr 24 2024

When Not to Connect the Dots

When plotting a sequence of points, should we connect the dots into a line? We usually do, but it shouldn’t be a foregone conclusion. Every chart element should have a clear and precise meaning: if we can’t explain what it means or it is ambiguous, it confuses readers and we should omit it.

The bulk of the SPC literature shows Control Charts as broken-line graphs. 100 years ago, Walter Shewhart, the inventor of these charts, plotted separate points instead. He did not explain why, so it’s on us to try and figure out what may have been his reasons.

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By Michel Baudin • Data science • 1

BernouilliFallacyFeature2

Mar 25 2024

A Review of Bernoulli’s Fallacy

Aubrey Clayton’s book, Bernoulli’s Fallacy, covers the same ground as Jaynes’s Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, for a broader audience. It is also an easier read, at 347 pages versus 727. In addition, the author also discusses the socio-political context of mathematical statistics in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. According to his account, mistakes ranged from justice and medicine to social sciences. It ends with recommendations to avoid repeating them. 

This book is definitely a shot from the Bayesian side in the war between Bayesians and frequentists.  It is tearing apart the world of statisticians but most data scientists have no wish to enlist on either side.  They should nonetheless read it, for challenging ideas and historical background. 

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By Michel Baudin • Book reviews • 3 • Tags: Bayesian Statistics, Frequentist statistics

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Mar 5 2024

Process Control and Gaussians

The statistical quality profession has a love/hate relationship with the Gaussian distribution. In SPC, it treats it like an embarrassing spouse. It uses the Gaussian distribution as the basis for all its control limits while claiming it doesn’t matter. In 2024, what role, if any, should this distribution play in the setting of action limits for quality characteristics?

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By Michel Baudin • Data science, Technology • 1 • Tags: Control Charts, Control Limits, FMEA, gaussian, Normal distribution, pFMEA, process control, Quality, SPC

RotationWheel

Feb 7 2024

Toyota’s job rotation policy

Kerry Creech became President of Toyota Motor Manufacturing of Kentucky (TMMK) in July 2023. He had joined Toyota as a team member in powertrain quality control in Georgetown, KY in 1990. Toyota’s policy of developing people and promoting from within made this career possible. Kerry Creech got a degree in electrical and electronics engineering in 2010 while a manager at Toyota.

There are many dimensions to Toyota’s Human Resource Management, and I would like to focus this post on the specifics of Job Rotation as a policy that sets Toyota apart from most other manufacturing companies. A blog reader asked about it, so I checked with Tracey Richardson for accurate details, at least for Toyota’s US operations when she was working there.

There are two types of rotations, involving, in different ways, production operators – “team members” in Toyota parlance – and the support staff, starting with first-line managers – known as “group leaders.”

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By Michel Baudin • Management • 8 • Tags: Job rotation, Toyota, Training

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Jan 29 2024

Measurement Errors

Like spouses in murders, errors are always the prime suspect when measurements go awry. As soon Apollo 13 had a problem, a Mission Control engineer exclaimed, “It’s got to be the instrumentation!”

It wasn’t the instrumentation. In general, however, before searching for a root cause in your process, you want to rule out the instrumentation. For that, you need to make sure it always gives you accurate and precise data.

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By Michel Baudin • Data science • 2 • Tags: ANOVA, Gare R&R, Measured Variables, measurement, measurement error

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